Based on a nice discussion with folks om Twitter (@kencamp, @SherylBreuker, @Bernals & @seanwilder) I confronted the question about Hosted PBX vs Google Voice (nee Grand Central) vs on premise PBX.

I have on several occasions said that Google Voice, in it current incarnation, is not very innovative. The functionality of Google Voice is found in both PBXes, but also service providers are having those features.

However, Google Voice is a very good start on letting users control their own telephony - even if it lack a feature or two.

The question that is valid just before Google Voice goes from closed beta to public release is how will the Hosted PBX and the on premise PBX measure up?

Before I start the discussion I must note that the following applies to primarily to the "common business". Also have in mind that the world is not black&white - it's more colorful than such :-)

Let's take a look at the on premise PBX first. Based on what we do in my company, and what other are telling me, the future for telephony is hosted. My forecast is that in the not so distant future, only big companies will have on premises PBXes. Well not quite - companies not using VoIP will probably also have a on premises PBX (see bellow for alternate views).

Unfortunately for vendors for VoIP PBXes they will have a huge problem competing with hosted systems - there are no reason why a hosted system should not have the same feature set as a on premise VoIP PBX.

To add some salt to the wound: Self configuring telephone systems - just deploy hand sets and they will "find each other" and the sum of the hand sets will be the equivalent of the on premise PBX, but without the pain.

Hosted PBXes solution are just beginning to mature. I have seen a few and so far they are not very polished. They work, they do have the basic feature set in place - but so far not very sexy or innovative. If you want to educate on your hosted PBX solution - please do contact me.

Due to the key-hole problem with internal calling - the hosted solutions will primarily fancy SMEs.

Or - if you are willing to spend enough money on a dedicated IP-connection for your VoIP needs, then a hosted solution can also be used in your big enterprise. In Norway more and more ITSPs are more or less demanding that their big clients also buy bandwidth from them - either dedicated for VoIP or to have full QoS in place. Keep in mind that these ITSPs are not providing hosted PBX solutions. Now think about this scenario from a customers point of view. It is not pretty.

Worth repeating: There are no reason why hosted PBXes can't have the same feature set as a on premise PBX.

So what about Google Voice?

Google Voice provide a easy way for people to control how their phone-(system) behave. Currently Google Voice is not very innovative - which is a shame. So far I have not talked to anyone not liking the service and the feature set.

Google Voice is kind of a key-system without the dedicated lines, but with a easy to understand user interface.

Google Voice is not the only actor in this part of the market - there are others out there. Even more innovative than Google. Unfortunately they do not have the same brand name.

Could Google Voice be a alternative to a PBX system?

I fully believe so.

When I did my dissertation for my MSc degree at the University of Liverpool I wrote about what features and interfaces users really want in their PBX. So far Google Voice is on the right track.

The really cool thing about Google Voice is that it does not matter what kind og transportation channel is used for your telephone conversation (PSTN, GSM, VoIP). Google Voice acts as a front end to your telephone use.

With the right feature set in place Google Voice could easy grab a hugh market share from the hosted PBX area.

Earlier I wrote that there are other entities doing the same as Google Voice is doing. Given the dominant position Google have some of these companies will have problems justify their existence. On the other hand - there is a huge market where Google Voice never will venture in the foreseeable future and that is outside NANPA (i.e. Europe, Asia, Australia, Africa).

Creating the same services that Grand Central had - and that Google Voice now have does really not require rocket science development.

UPDATE 2009-04-04
I did spend some time reading up on Google Voice more than I previously had. Getting into all the gory details.

It is possible to port your number from Google Voice - http://www.google.com/support/voice/bin/answer.py?hl=en&answer=115103

It does not change the picture that I outlined above - however it does strengthen the case of using Google Voice.